The Speech and the Aftermath

Just three of the 400 or so I have… so I can post others on shutterfly or other outlet if anybody wants to see more.

Warm Up Acts

will.i.am performing his Obama song

Cheryl Crow performing Change

Former Vice President Al Gore

Current Veep choice Joe Biden

More on Palin….

This is why I appreciate so much when people comment on my posts (particularly my sleepy ones)… because the comments are better than the posts. So in case others aren’t checking out the comments section, let me magnify the two particular challenges with the Palin pick. The Dems have two frames with which to play this choice:

1. As Patrick Murphy notes, there is a huge danger that this pick will be viewed as simply tokenism (he puts this far more eloquently than I). Appealing to women by saying, well, like Hillary, she has two x chromosomes, might be viewed as demeaning – like the idea that Clarence Thomas was suitable replacement for Thurgood Marshall. A great line I heard on the shuttle (and I don’t know the source of this)… “John McCain chose a woman VP candidate so he can pay her less.” Good reference to his opposition to the equal pay for equal work legislation. If they can portray her as hostile towards women’s interests and merely a token (like Howard Dean’s appeal to gun-toting confederate flag waiving southern good old boys) this pick isn’t at all helpful and might turn off women. But, they don’t want to overplay this. As the talking heads are saying, the Dems are loving this pick. Careful. Overreaching here would be a HUGE mistake. While Patrick is right if the Dems. play this cool, if they start the “you are just a token” line at the debate and gang up on her and dismiss her as some of the “analysts” are doing, the response (to quote Thomas’ appalling response yet one that snapped the media into line) is that this will be a “political lynching”.

2. As Jude Barry notes, this might be viewed as just political pandering. I agree. I can’t see any way that this is a good governing pick like Biden is. And I LOVE mayors. But I have to admit that she wasn’t on my list of effective mayors. And I think being governor can be good preparation. But she’s been governor for 20 months in a state where the legislature rarely meets. So she won’t help there. And the line that “well she led the Alaska National Guard” (I heard this from a Repub rep. on CNN Airport) is absurd in the extreme. They need to be VERY wise about rolling her out. If the Dems get to frame this pick, Jude is absolutely right that the pandering line damages the McCain brand deeply. Again, one of the best speeches of the convention was John Kerry’s where he compared McCain the Senator to McCain the Candidate. YouTube it. Then think of this choice in that light. They can have some fun with this

I still think that McCain didn’t have much choice but to swing for the fences (“close your eyes and you might hit something…” If it was Pawlenty or Romney, I’d probably still be asleep. As would be the delegates in Minneapolis on Wednesday. At least this stemmed the bleeding from the Dem. Convention.

People at the Convention – Before the Speeches

The Mainstream Media Plots Global Domination (hi Spencer)

Newark Mayor Cory Booker

No word on his reaction when Senator Obama talked about the responsibility of fathers.

Pre-Convention Photos: Mile High Stadium

Jennifer Hudson sings the national anthem after Shawn Johnson did the Pledge

Who is Sarah Palin?

So last night, every media person (and my well-connected fried Jude Barry) told me that Governor Pawlenty was getting into a plane to be announced as McCain’s Veep pick this morning.

So I believed it, too. Until I was awakened (Clinton was wrong, the 3 am phone call is easy, it’s the 6:30 am call that’s tough) with the word that it’s Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. I was asked my reaction, so I said, “who is Sarah Palin”? Thank goodness for the internet.

I’d heard her name as a possible “dark horse” candidate. She’s the anti-Biden. She’s the safe pick. Because all she can do is help. This was a game-changing act of desperation who can’t hurt you. But she was one of the few names mentioned who could help. I always had difficulty with Mitt Romney or Pawlenty as the pick because they brought nothing to the table. But Palin helps. The Republicans were wise to select a Governor, they were wise to appeal to their base rather than pick a pro-choice candidate like Ridge or Lieberman and potentially destroy their party. Sure like Obama, they just undermined their message with their Veep pick. How can they assert that Obama is risky and untested? The “heartbeat away” thing is a bit of a problem… they are saying the second-best person to be president is a 44 year old first term governor from Alaska who didn’t win 50% of the vote in her only election in Alaska and whos only previous experience was as mayor of a town of 8,000 people. If they had a comprehensive strategy for ending conflict in the middle east, that’s one progressive and ambitious town. But probably on most of the key issues of the day, she’s a blank slate.

So why would she help? First, because of the pronoun. This is a realization that to win they need to appeal to Senator Clinton’s supporters. Lacking someone with the qualifications and life history of Senator Clinton, they found a charismatic, reform-minded governor. her husband is a native Eskimo, and she has the sort of down-home appeal that can help. It certainly helps with the reform/maverick message (because she defeated a sitting Republican governor on an ethics platform). Helps with those who would like to make history with this election. So this helps.

Biden was a confident, and thereby risky pick that said, “we’re going to win”. This strikes me as an electorally-savvy pick that says “we need to win”. They just changed the game and the Republicans needed to do this. Keep in mind, Veep candidates rarely “hurt”. I was disappointed that Biden was a missed opportunity to help. The Republicans are not missing that opportunity. Sure, she might be torn to shreds in the Veep debate by a guy who has been in the Senate since she was 8 years old. But beating her up could do the same kind of damage to the Dem coalition as Obama’s dismissive “you’re likable enough” hit on Hillary during the primary debates.

This election will be conducted on the Dems’ turf. Both sides now admit that. The main point of the Dem convention was to unite the party and break even with the independents. That’s it. Do that, and Obama wins this easily. From registration to organization to turnout to feelings about the parties, the Dems have every advantage in the world. Unite the party and break even with the moderates and it’s a comfortable win. John McCain just recognized that and admitted it. If he can peel away Democrats (he needs 20% of Dems or so) he’s in this. But he needs something on the order of 15-20% of Dems and to keep 90-95% of Republicans. For the first time that I can recall, this election is taking place on Democratic turf, not Republican.

So, when you’re done googling “Sarah Palin” think about how this might reshape the calculus that gets to 270. And PLEASE, comment…

Quite a Convention

So I will post more in the morning (I mean the real morning… not the 3am morning). But as it is 3am, I’m going to stay up just in case Hillary calls. Actually, I don’t think Hillary ever said who will call. Maybe I should call her.

So… I have mixed feelings about the speech today.

The day was marvelous (I was on the floor next to the North Carolina delegates and took 380 pictures). I’ll charge the camera overnight and post a few tomorrow from the airport. Amazing visuals, some great mini-concerts, and a series of good addresses. Though if I were ranking for my week here: Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, John Kerry (!), Brian Schweitzer, Donna Brazile, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, and Al Gore. And then a LOT I just don’t remember.

Obama’s speech is a little tough to digest at the moment – in part because the electricity in the stadium makes it nearly impossible to objectively dissect without a few hours of sleep. But also because all of Obama’s speeches are to some extent – his delivery frequently overcomes some shoddy writing – he’s usually far better than the text. But he was a bit different tonight – somewhat subdued in parts, feisty in others, and lofty in others. I have to read it to see how well the sections connect and the themes work. In the stadium, everything worked. But I’d like to be a bit more analytical. So I need to read the text. It seemed a bit disjointed, but there were parts that were exactly on point and parts that seemed to wander in search of a theme.

So MY theme for tomorrow’s post… “there’s no going back” – this election will permanently transform American politics. Aside from the usual rhetoric that asserts this, I do think this will be a defining election (it’s already historic) but it will cause a break in our politics. Obama just “played” a sold out football stadium. I watched people weep, and dance, and scream, and rejoice, and participate in politics that I have NEVER seen. And don’t expect to see next week. If Obama wins, it will be hard to imagine the old politics – by which I mean non-democratic, non-participatory, elite-driven, traditional media dominated, presidential elections occurring again. This will change the game. And if he loses… I fear that we will lose a generation.

Photos from Illinois Delegation Convention (Coors Field)

So, the Illinois reception… free food and a baseball stadium.

Why not?

With Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and my friend James Walker.

More People Shots

Former California Governor Gray Davis (right?)

Mayor Gavin Newsom, SF (at the Dem Mayors’ Reception)

Republican Pollster Frank Luntz (yup)

Convention Photos – Night Three