It’s Biden!

Wow. So the mainstream media had been reporting for several weeks that Delaware Senator Joe Biden was the favorite, but I’m still a bit stunned. It’s certainly not a homerun pick. Maybe a clean single. Or a bloop single. Or a swinging bunt. But it’s not a glaring mistake or a reach. Probably wouldn’t have been my first choice, but then again I didn’t get 18 million votes in the primary elections, so I don’t get to pick.

So what do I think we learned about Senator Barack Obama in his first real test?

First. He played this close to the vest. A lot of headfakes, a lot of misdirection, but somewhat stunningly (at least until an hour or so ago) there were no leaks and no obvious mistakes. I think this says something about his managerial style that people close to the campaign didn’t know the choice until very recently. Remarkable discipline for a first time candidacy. Impressive.

Second. Having the choice come out after midnight on a Friday night is about the worst thing that can happen. Where is the communications director to explain how the media coverage will work and that the stations have gone to bed for the night… well, for the week. At the same time people are watching the Jamaicans set an unbelievable world record in the 4 x 100, word comes that Biden is the choice. Great timing. This could have come out earlier in the week or even before the Olympics, right? Or if not, held until the start of the convention? The timing is shocking to me.

Third. For all of Senator McCain’s talk that Obama wants to win the election more than the war (what amounts to a charge of treason), this was not an election-winning pick. An election winning pick would have been a “popular” choice (perhaps Senator Clinton or Senator Nunn or Senator Feinstein… shameless California plug) or a candidate designed to win a state (Kaine in Virginia, Richardson in New Mexico, among others). Instead, this was a governance pick. By all estimations, Biden is a serious, committed, bipartisan problem-solver with a clear grasp of American foreign policy and a deep abiding respect for American institutions (like the U.S. Senate). That kind of pick takes a lot of guts. Because,

Fourth. I just don’t see how this helps Obama win the White House. Obama has added a senior Senator from a safe Democratic state to his “Change we can believe in” campaign. We need, “CHANGE” but that entails nominating as VP a 6 term Senator. In short, the Obama campaign has to switch the narrative now. And it’s a bit late in the game for that. I advise “Change vs. More of the Same… Why not Both?” If Biden is the best qualified choice to become President in a time of national emergency doesn’t that raise the question of the presidential candidate’s qualifications? Yes he somewhat inoculates the candidate against attacks on his lack of foreign policy experience (in the same way that Cheney did this for Bush) but this is a potential problem is it not (in the same way that Cheney did this for Bush)? It seems to me that the Democratic Convention will be essential for showing Obama’s independence from his VP choice. I think this raises the bar even higher for the Convention not lower.

Moreover, Biden voted for the war (yes, he has since criticized the handling of the war and comes close to Obama’s position), something that will make the base unhappy… and the base has been unhappy for a while now. The young progressives needed to sustain the movement are getting restless and or losing interest. And Biden was highly critical of Obama’s foreign policy during the campaign and implied he wasn’t quite prepared to be president. Sure, Reagan survived his own VP referring to his economic plan as “Voodoo Economics”, but generally speaking, you’d like a Veep choice to not be on the record questioning your qualifications.

Plus, a Senate record is about the easiest thing to dissect in American politics. The “book” on Senators is hundreds of pages long. The “Swift Boaters” were just handed a golden ticket here because there is something (and in 6 terms a LOT of something) in that voting record that will make for a nice commercial. If I were a Republican operative, I’d have a spot up tomorrow with the total number of tax increase votes cast by the Democratic ticket. See, it’s just that easy. I’m imagining a GEICO commercial here. But…

Fifth. It doesn’t really hurt either. First, VP picks rarely make much difference in an election. Remember that Bush the Elder came back from a 17 point deficit in polls against Dukakis by selecting the least qualified, least capable, most blindly ideological (and worst spelling) Veep choice since Spiro Agnew. The pick was panned, Quayle was a mess, the Bushies got nothing but bad marks. And it didn’t matter. Conversely, John Edwards was a brilliant pick. He was smooth, smart, had nice hair, and could deliver the south, or at least the Carolinas, or at least… well, he had nice hair. And they got nothing (insert off-color John Edwards joke here). So let’s not get carried away. Biden will be a loyal partner, a tough campaigner, someone who can reach out to working class voters and will be relentless on the stump. Relentless. So in conclusion…..

Campaigning isn’t everything. I would hope at some point the horserace demanding mainstream press will figure this out. At some point, and this would probably be news to the current administration, you need to govern. Crafting public spectacles and reframing policy initiatives and traveling from state-to-state does not substitute for negotiation, compromise, and the day-to-day grind of governance. Biden is a grinder. He’s a legislator. And it’s a shame that has become a pejorative term. It’s not. Biden is a well respected D.C. insider. He is obviously someone that Senator Obama trusts and can work with in enacting an agenda and managing a bureaucracy. As a governance pick, it’s hard to find fault here.

The question is, will they get to govern?