Debunking the Bunk

Political science is not a predictive science. Yes, there are those who try to predict election outcomes. But the models usually only “work” retrospectively (this minimizing their “predictive” value).

So no predictions from me.

That said, here’s what we know. Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans. More than 80% of the time. Both parties had to deal with unity issues – the Dems. worried about the middle (Clinton voters) and the Repubs. worried about the base (Huckabee voters and social conservatives). Both have done that. Obama is polling around 85% of Dems. and McCain at 90% of Repubs.

Issues will not decide this election. Yes, the Dems “win” on issues. Get over it. The Republican narratives are stronger because they are built on strong frames. Government is wasteful and taxes are evil. Until the Dems. figure out how to change the narrative, they will not win on issues alone.

But, in the next 60+ days issues will but used to reinforce or undermine the narratives. And for that reason, the Dems. have the advantage – in order to unite his party, McCain has only two issues with broad public appeal: drilling and taxes. He loses on the war, but probably wins as the best one to end it. But many of the other issues will better reinforce the Dems. message than the Republicans. In short, McCain went all in on the Change message. Here’s the problem – Obama staked that ground out already. McCain has spent too much time uniting his party, appealing to his base, and literally and figuratively embracing President Bush. The next phase of the campaign favors the Dems.

The competition for swing voters will be easier for Senator Obama because he’s been doing it longer. McCain will end up having to disavow Governor Palin’s positions on a large range of issues. She is a captivating candidate but will be holding the campaign captive on a number of issues – including that of abortion rights.

The election will be determined by turnout. The simple assumptions that high turnout favors Dems. and low turnout favors Repubs. is NOT true. High turnout in 2004 benefited President Bush. But, in 2008 the Dems. are FAR more likely to be helped by turnout. Why? Voter registration are overwhelmingly trending to the Democrats, and the campaign is a 21st Century model – unprecedented targeting of voters, unprecedented numbers of volunteers, and an unprecedented organization. The Republicans are STARTING to organize this week. The Dems. have been organizing since January. Obama has precinct captains, voter contact lists, and a massive organization in 50 states. The Republicans do not. They now have the churches and faith organizations, but early voting starts in about a month in some states. It’s late. It takes two years to get out the vote not two months. The Dems. are prepared, the Republicans are not.

McCain will undoubtedly get a bump from the convention. He’ll at least pull even if not take the lead. The Dems. however are better positioned for the end game. This is not to say that Obama will win, but the campaign was structured to win in the last 60 days…. to win the debates and roll into election day and potentially open up a 5-6 point lead (like Reagan in 1980). The McCain campaign was structured to get to today. This was their high point – their best shots have been fired – McCain as maverick, McCain as POW and war hero. Their endgame is not yet designed.

McCain can most certainly still win, but based on past elections and what political science tells us about voting behavior and public opinion, I think the odds remain strongly against it.