More on the “Pick”

So far the press coverage has been pretty generous regarding Senator Obama’s selection of Joe Biden. That’s to be expected. But the MSM consensus seems to be that this was a “safe” pick. I’m not sure I see it that way. He’s safe in the sense that he’s not going to have a John Edwards-sized skeleton in his closet, but there seems to be a disproportionate amount of anger in the liberal blogosphere. Safe would have been Chet Edwards. Why? Because nobody much knows who that is. Or Clinton or Richardson or Kaine – though some would have been disappointed with those choices, all of those could have been easily explained out of political necessity.

This pick seems to garner so much disapproval precisely because it seems not to have been driven by politics. In short, I think there isn’t much of an argument that Biden helps in the election. Yes, he wins you Scranton. And not to diss Dunder-Mifflin, but is this really the best you could hope for? At least New Mexico gets electoral college votes. Scranton, not so much (unless you buy the whole, “As Scranton goes, so goes the nation” thing.

No, the anger with the pick is that it seems like Obama thinks this is the best person for the job. Now, at least it wasn’t Evan Bayh. So the core BarackStars don’t have to face the possibility that their guy would sell his soul (by nominating a neo-con) to win the election. But this is the next worse thing. They’re spending tonight wondering about his commitment to their cause.

So, running it down on the eve of the convention:

Fans of Senator Clinton are livid because she was NEVER an option (which should make the roll call vote at the convention all the more interesting). And, as my friend and colleague Patrick Murphy noted, if the goal was to win back the millions of Clinton voters expressing continued concern with an Obama ticket, selecting a guy who was widely credited with failing to support Anita Hill and by extension allowing Clarence Thomas to be confirmed in the face of evidence of sexual harassment that the Senate failed to take seriously is especially egregious.

And there are the usual disappointments that someone from the southwest or midwest or (what do we call Kansas… “plains”?) wasn’t selected. But they’ll get over it.

But in addition to that, it seems to me that a lot of Obama’s core supporters are flummoxed. Why? Because they were desperate to buy into the “change we can believe in” message and the first meaningful act of their candidate was to undermine the message, and frankly, the entire raison d’etra of the candidacy. It is akin to Senator McCain selecting a draft-dodger (just wait… a couple are on the short list) or someone who refuses to wear the flag pin (though McCain sometimes forgets his, probably leaving it on the nightstand in one of his houses). It just doesn’t make sense.

Now, most people I know have an awful lot of nice things to say about Biden. And I tend to think he’ll be a good VP. He’ll be a team player, he knows D.C., he can work with Congress, and he knows his way around the foreign policy bureaucracy. He’ll be a respectful partner and not someone angling for the job (Biden would be 73 at the conclusion of two terms). So he’s a Cheney pick. A company guy. A governance guy.

But that doesn’t at all satisfy the Obama true believers. They feel betrayed. Biden didn’t just vote for the war, he shepherded the resolution through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He doesn’t just make the occasional verbal gaffe, he makes repeatedly tone deaf comments – like implying that Iowa schools are better than DC ones due to their racial composition or that he could compete in the south because Delaware was a “slave state”, let alone the other more widely dissected comments intended to be in praise of Obama.

While Senator Obama gave probably the most nuanced speech on racial politics I have heard from a candidate for elective office, he was also the guy who had his Sister Souljah moment in his June speech assailing absent Black fathers (aka the Cosby speech). So for him to select a guy who seems incapable of talking about race doesn’t appeal to those under 30 or those who were starting to wonder if their candidate was drifting to the middle or really there all along.

So on the eve of the convention, the supporters of the vanquished rival are unhappy and the core of the nominee’s supporters don’t know if “change” is more than a slogan. Doesn’t sound “safe” to me.

But is sure sounds like this Convention will be interesting. More to follow… tomorrow a run-down on what the Dems. need to achieve at their convention.

It’s Biden!

Wow. So the mainstream media had been reporting for several weeks that Delaware Senator Joe Biden was the favorite, but I’m still a bit stunned. It’s certainly not a homerun pick. Maybe a clean single. Or a bloop single. Or a swinging bunt. But it’s not a glaring mistake or a reach. Probably wouldn’t have been my first choice, but then again I didn’t get 18 million votes in the primary elections, so I don’t get to pick.

So what do I think we learned about Senator Barack Obama in his first real test?

First. He played this close to the vest. A lot of headfakes, a lot of misdirection, but somewhat stunningly (at least until an hour or so ago) there were no leaks and no obvious mistakes. I think this says something about his managerial style that people close to the campaign didn’t know the choice until very recently. Remarkable discipline for a first time candidacy. Impressive.

Second. Having the choice come out after midnight on a Friday night is about the worst thing that can happen. Where is the communications director to explain how the media coverage will work and that the stations have gone to bed for the night… well, for the week. At the same time people are watching the Jamaicans set an unbelievable world record in the 4 x 100, word comes that Biden is the choice. Great timing. This could have come out earlier in the week or even before the Olympics, right? Or if not, held until the start of the convention? The timing is shocking to me.

Third. For all of Senator McCain’s talk that Obama wants to win the election more than the war (what amounts to a charge of treason), this was not an election-winning pick. An election winning pick would have been a “popular” choice (perhaps Senator Clinton or Senator Nunn or Senator Feinstein… shameless California plug) or a candidate designed to win a state (Kaine in Virginia, Richardson in New Mexico, among others). Instead, this was a governance pick. By all estimations, Biden is a serious, committed, bipartisan problem-solver with a clear grasp of American foreign policy and a deep abiding respect for American institutions (like the U.S. Senate). That kind of pick takes a lot of guts. Because,

Fourth. I just don’t see how this helps Obama win the White House. Obama has added a senior Senator from a safe Democratic state to his “Change we can believe in” campaign. We need, “CHANGE” but that entails nominating as VP a 6 term Senator. In short, the Obama campaign has to switch the narrative now. And it’s a bit late in the game for that. I advise “Change vs. More of the Same… Why not Both?” If Biden is the best qualified choice to become President in a time of national emergency doesn’t that raise the question of the presidential candidate’s qualifications? Yes he somewhat inoculates the candidate against attacks on his lack of foreign policy experience (in the same way that Cheney did this for Bush) but this is a potential problem is it not (in the same way that Cheney did this for Bush)? It seems to me that the Democratic Convention will be essential for showing Obama’s independence from his VP choice. I think this raises the bar even higher for the Convention not lower.

Moreover, Biden voted for the war (yes, he has since criticized the handling of the war and comes close to Obama’s position), something that will make the base unhappy… and the base has been unhappy for a while now. The young progressives needed to sustain the movement are getting restless and or losing interest. And Biden was highly critical of Obama’s foreign policy during the campaign and implied he wasn’t quite prepared to be president. Sure, Reagan survived his own VP referring to his economic plan as “Voodoo Economics”, but generally speaking, you’d like a Veep choice to not be on the record questioning your qualifications.

Plus, a Senate record is about the easiest thing to dissect in American politics. The “book” on Senators is hundreds of pages long. The “Swift Boaters” were just handed a golden ticket here because there is something (and in 6 terms a LOT of something) in that voting record that will make for a nice commercial. If I were a Republican operative, I’d have a spot up tomorrow with the total number of tax increase votes cast by the Democratic ticket. See, it’s just that easy. I’m imagining a GEICO commercial here. But…

Fifth. It doesn’t really hurt either. First, VP picks rarely make much difference in an election. Remember that Bush the Elder came back from a 17 point deficit in polls against Dukakis by selecting the least qualified, least capable, most blindly ideological (and worst spelling) Veep choice since Spiro Agnew. The pick was panned, Quayle was a mess, the Bushies got nothing but bad marks. And it didn’t matter. Conversely, John Edwards was a brilliant pick. He was smooth, smart, had nice hair, and could deliver the south, or at least the Carolinas, or at least… well, he had nice hair. And they got nothing (insert off-color John Edwards joke here). So let’s not get carried away. Biden will be a loyal partner, a tough campaigner, someone who can reach out to working class voters and will be relentless on the stump. Relentless. So in conclusion…..

Campaigning isn’t everything. I would hope at some point the horserace demanding mainstream press will figure this out. At some point, and this would probably be news to the current administration, you need to govern. Crafting public spectacles and reframing policy initiatives and traveling from state-to-state does not substitute for negotiation, compromise, and the day-to-day grind of governance. Biden is a grinder. He’s a legislator. And it’s a shame that has become a pejorative term. It’s not. Biden is a well respected D.C. insider. He is obviously someone that Senator Obama trusts and can work with in enacting an agenda and managing a bureaucracy. As a governance pick, it’s hard to find fault here.

The question is, will they get to govern?

Heading off to Denver and Minneapolis/St. Paul

We’re heading into convention week(s) amidst the media insanity about the VeepStakes (camping out in front of Joe Biden’s house to see if he gets his morning paper).

Denver first, then Minneapolis/St. Paul. The Democrats win with the higher cool factor (I’ll have to check with Richard Florida, but I’ve got to believe the creative class would prefer the Rockies to the Mall of America), but the Republicans win in number of cities, two to one.