Final Thoughts on the RNC…

So, I have one more post to come, in which I’ll try to insert a bit of political science into the punditry. But before that, I wanted to share a handful of quick thoughts:

One thing that was striking tonight was the reaction of the crowd to the various lines in McCain’s speech. For instance, his line about standing up to lobbyists and oil companies was VERY poorly received (imagine that) while the line about drilling was exceptionally well received. There is a basic tension in the party here between its primary funders and interests (which are increasingly linked to oil and gas) and the social conservatives that make up the base. Governor Palin speaks to both. The nominee, Senator McCain, speaks to neither. They love his bio. But they don’t love his stances on issues.
Governor Palin had a line last night that got a lot of attention. It was the one line she ad-libbed, about hockey moms being like pit bulls with lipstick. What is interesting is that in the hub-bub over her fantastic performance one interesting fact has gone unnoticed -  focus groups were unimpressed. In the echo chamber that is a national convention, it seemed that EVERYONE appreciated the speech. And the reaction from Democrats was one of concern. Her shots on Obama were largely direct hits. Dems. were worried that this would appeal to moderates and Republicans were convinced. Someone needs to tell that to moderates and independents. This reminds me of the assumption of both parties that Edwards would help in the south. The pundit class was convinced. Kerry/Edwards got shut out. Maybe the two parties should stop guessing how swing voters will react and pundits guess from inside the bubble. It appears that they were not moved. At least a couple of the veteran print journalists I’ve spoken with think the pit bull line was a SERIOUS mistake… that voters actually don’t want a pit bull as Veep. I would imagine the handlers were not thrilled with the one deviation from the text.

Of all of the attack lines, former NYC Mayor’s criticism of Barack Obama as “cosmopolitan” was perhaps the most hilarious coming from the mayor of America’s most cosmopolitan city while defending America’s small towns. Bizarre.

I wasn’t going to say anything, BUT… after applauding vigorously while Guiliani accused Dems and the national media of sexism in their treatment of Governor Palin, I heard several references, FROM DELEGATES, to Palin’s appearance… namely, the line that “she’s hot”. In fact, today, there were large and promenant buttons about the “hot girl” and “Hoosiers for the Hot Chick”. Glad to see they are concerned about sexism.

Both parties delivered solid spectacles at their conventions and the narratives for the fall campaign have lined up. For Obama it’s change vs. more of the same, future vs. past, and economic issues as primary (using the McCain gaffes about the economy as evidence of being out of touch). For McCain it’s service vs. speechmaking, strong vs. weak/indecisive/even effeminate, and authentic vs. messianic (using Obama’s gaffes about “clinging” to guns and religion and questions about when life begins to being above his pay grade.

Pictures from the Speeches – Tuesday and Wednesday

Plenty of Good Seats Still Available

Palin’s Night

First, the speech was fantastic. VERY well written, and well delivered. Governor Palin has an amazing capacity to dig in the knife without looking like she’s doing it. Democrats who underestimated her wish they didn’t. They need to get to work. She most certainly left herself open when she once again repeated the easily refutable claim that she opposed the bridge to nowhere. But aside from that, was very effective.

Sure there wasn’t much “new” about her biography, and there wasn’t much policy with the rare exception of energy independence. But she came across (at least in the hall) as confident, compelling, and feisty.

These delegates were waiting for three days to hit hard on Obama and thus far the hits have been well off the mark. But there were a few tonight that seem to be on point for the fall campaign.

Tonight excited the base. I heard dozens of people proclaim after the speech that the race is “over”, but not in the way that Republican operatives Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan said today on an open mike referencing Palin’s nomination (oops). Again, not quite the buzz of Denver – the upper deck was half full and nobody to the sides or rear of the stage (in Denver every seat was full, including those with obscured views). So the buzz in the hall was palpable, but it’s hard to say how far that will travel.

Still, it seems to me that the general election is ON now. And McCain went (at least for one night) from being an impulsive gambler who failed to vet his Veep choice to a brilliant judge of talent. I will repeat for the 100th time that the Veep choice rarely matters, but in this case, it might have rescued the party from internal squabbling (as would have certainly been the case if McCain got his choices in Ridge or Lieberman) or malaise (if the staffers had gotten theirs in Romney or Pawlenty). Not sure it reaches swing voters or supporters of Senator Clinton once her record is examined more fully and she begins answering questions, but for a night, all of that is to rest.

The Warm Up Acts

There wasn’t a whole lot today to get excited about in the opening acts.

The back-to-back CEO speeches by Carly Fiorina and Med Whitman were flat and while substantive, most ignored by the crowd. It’s striking that the two most substantive addresses were probably the worst received. Then again, the bio line “from California” might have sent folks packing.

Mitt Romney got sustained applause but frankly his argument was a bit convoluted – he advocated on behalf of change… from a “liberal Washington to a conservative Washington” apparently blaming all of the economic and international challenges on 20 months of a Democratic Congress. This is the same Congress that has been berated here as “do nothing”. Isn’t it “either/or”?

Anyway, Mitt suggested that voters “throw out the big government liberals.”

And in the line of the night (in that it would be more applicable if given by a Democratic in reference to the Bush administration than the converse) was “it’s time for the party of big ideas, not the party of big brother.” Amen, Mitt.

Mike Huckabee did himself some good. The delegates seemed openly a bit reticent when he began, but warmed up quickly and he turned the crowd around. He suggested that Obama brought back “European ideas” from Europe on his trip, which is probably the first time he’s been attacked as “too European” in this election. But the crowd loved it anyway. He struck me as the Brian Schweitzer of this convention. Not sure that the substance was really there, but came across as very genuine and likable.

Then Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle gave a relatively bland defense of Governor Palin’s record as mayor and governor. However, she did get delegates excited by suggesting that the Obama/Biden ticket has “no executive experience… Zero” The delegates took that cue and began chanting “Zero” at every reference to Obama. Pretty funny stuff. But some of the red meat was bizarre – like the argument that Alaska has as many electoral votes as Delaware and that it’s 120 times larger in size. But she seemed to give away the playbook in asserting that Palin is a strong social conservative, fiscal hawk, and proponent of free market economics, but could reach out to independents, young people, and women. I’m sure of the first three, but not certain about the last three.

The last warmup act was Rudy Guiliani. I have to admit that I don’t get the appeal. He dished out a lot of attacks on Obama, but most were off the mark. And the line that Democrats are in a “state of denial” about September 11th seemed sad given how his “all 9/11 candidacy” flamed out.

He did hit Obama in two places that I would expect to see repeated in the fall: a reference to Obama’s contention that some people “cling to guns and religion” and a rant against Islamic terrorism and the complaint that Democrats will not explicitly call it that (this might become the “flag pin” of the 2008 election.

My most favorite moment of the night… (and I am ABSOLUTELY not embellishing here) when Rudy praised McCain’s line about the conflict with Russia that “we are all Georgians” … the Georgia delegation gave a prolonged standing ovation. OOPS!

Democrats at the RNC

So I haven’t seen any Democrats yet at the Convention. But they are clearly interested in responding to the Republican Convention in real time as the Repubs did at theirs.

The choice of Palin ended the DNC buzz a few days early and pre-empted the start of the campaign bus tour/ love fest that the Obama/Biden ticket had scheduled.

So what have the Dems. planned to knock McCain off the front pages? Well, aside from the start of the football season (which I would assume would depress ratings for Thursday night), Senator Obama will be heading over to Fox to give an interview with Bill O’Reilly. On Thursday. More or less right before McCain goes on. Now I don’t expect Fox News to gush over Obama, but this should get some run on Thursday. And depending on how it goes, might really cut into the TV coverage of McCain. And let’s face it, since people don’t read anymore, TV is king.

Expectations for Governor Palin

Tonight is billed as Governor Palin’s first “test”.

She’ll pass, easily. This isn’t a test, it’s an opportunity.

The McCain campaign has been dysfunctional in numerous respects – from the leaking and backbiting around the Veep choice (the campaign has kept the story running by giving out information about the choice, the vetting process, the timeline, etc.) to the inability to answer simple factual questions about Palin’s record. What’s funny, of course, is that there is a record. But that’s probably because they were caught off guard. So the campaign has taken way too long to get on message. They’ve finally settled on something about executive experience and how local government prepares you to be president because there is no escaping accountability. Makes sense to me actually. Far better than, “Alaska is close to Russia” or “She’s the Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard.”

But for all of their challenge in rolling out this pick, they are EXCELLENT speechwriters. Now I know McCain isn’t a captivating speaker. But if you read an Obama speech next to a McCain speech, the McCain one is simply better – better written, better thematically, etc. So tonight, they get to write for someone who is regarded as an excellent speaker. So she’ll do very well tonight. Yes, it’s a big stage, and yes it’s a relatively large auditorium. But this isn’t the tough test. That will come in the debate and when fielding media questions. Tonight will be her chance to introduce herself (literally introduce, not re-introduce) to voters and to the media and to the delegates on the floor. And she gets script. I fully expect her to ace the test.

So far, the questionable move of the day was the choice to bring the future son-in-law to the convention and have “family photos” taken with the Palin and McCain families. I still hope people will leave this alone. These are kids and they lives are simply none of our business. But parading this future son-in-law in front of the media (presumably to forestall the inevitable “get” of pictures of them together that would merely extend the story) seems to me to be a bit of a mistake. Yes, they get to claim him as a member of the family and his absence would be “news” or what passes for “news” also, but it’s a bit disingenuous to ask for privacy and then bring the kid into the limelight.

Anyway, expect a heavy dose of biography. And of the words “reform” and “maverick”. Expect a pretty safe version of her policy positions, but I would be stunned if this turns into a Biden-esqe attack on the other party’s nominee. That’s not her role. That’s why the Republicans have Rudy. She’s going to keep it positive and optimistic.

On Tap for Day Three

So, Wednesday at the Republican Convention:

The parade of former presidential contenders continues: Rudy “America’s Mayor” Guiliani, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee. This would complete the quad-fecta of past “frontrunners” to speak. It is worth noting that three of the four are no longer in public office. It is striking the degree to which sitting Senators and Governors are not addressing this convention. The Dems. seemed to give everybody their 8 minutes of time to gain some public attention. For a series of reasons (from Arnold Schwarzenegger’s absence due to the CA budget stalemate) to purely strategic decisions to avoid the convention lest the Republican brand impact potentially competitive races (John Sununu, etc.) there just aren’t a lot of sitting officeholders giving speeches.

But, unlike the Democrats, this parade of failed candidates isn’t about reuniting the party. Rather, these folks will provide the harsh attacks on Barack Obama that will excite the delegates. Expect some red meat tonight. Lots of it. In part, because it CANNOT come from Governor Palin (more on that in a few)…

Also on tap is the “future of the party” Governor Bobby Jindal from Louisiana who will be speaking from New Orleans. He was a potential Veep choice and is an intriguing person. Unfortunately, due to Gustav, he’s not here. I would think that he’s probably got the brightest future of the convention speakers, so the fact that he’s not able to address the convention live is unfortunate.

The other intriguing speech (at least to Californians) will be by former HP chief Carly Fiorina. She has defended Governor Palin vigorously (famously referring to the criticisms as “sexist” and sounding feminist themes in her defense), and is regarded as a potential Gov. candidate in 2010. The three frontrunners for the Republican nomination are Insurance Commissioner and lone statewide elected Republican Steve Poisner, Ebay CEO Meg Whitman, and Fiorina… by most respects three moderate (read Arnold) Republicans. Expect a hard right conservative to shake this up in the primary.

My hope, is that it’s Whitman vs. Westly for an all Ebay battle. At least I know where I could find 1 cent campaign buttons (albeit with $3.99 shipping).

The Bushes at the Convention

So, the Republicans did dodge a bullet by avoiding the W. and Cheney appearances scheduled for Monday. Instead, they got Laura Bush and W. by videotape from the White House.

Laura Bush warmly called Gov. Palin “a strong executive and proven reformer” and got a big cheer for her shout out to Republican women particularly Condi Rice.

She billed her defense of the Bush 43 administration as “just the facts”. And some were indeed “facts”: improved test scores, more people receiving AIDS medications in Africa (though the need is rapidly increasing probably more rapidly than the treatments depending on the data referenced). But some were not really facts, like her line that Bush appointed two exceptional judges. That seems more a matter of opinion, and that in Afghanistan and Iraq “fifty million people are now living in freedom” which seems like an interpretation rather than a fact. But the final “fact” that W. “kept the American people safe” seemed to trump all others. And got sustained applause. Laura Bush remains enormously popular.

W. gave a strikingly partisan speech given that he was speaking from the White House. Now, I don’t get caught up in that too much – he would have spoken at the convention, so I give him a pass. But it was an interesting speech. It mixed 9/11 rhetoric – how he “stood in the ruins of buildings” and that McCain learned the “lessons of 9/11″ – with praise of McCain as someone valuing “service above self” (an implicit swipe at Obama) and with the “courage and vision” to be commander-in-chief (there’s that frame again).

So what was interesting? Well, most recall that the Bush campaign ran a below-the-radar campaign against McCain in South Carolina referencing his “black daughter”. Tonight, Bush praised the McCains as “adoptive parents”. Bush made some reference to the “angry left” that would not deter McCain. I’m not sure if he’s talking about protesters, or Nancy Pelosi, or Obama. This was a little “vast rightwing conspiracy” for me.

He did reference a few policies (really the only one today):
McCain will make tax relief (there’s that frame again) permanent: solid applause
McCain will drill offshore: HUGE applause (then again, I was seated by the Texas delegation many of whome were wearing stickers saying “drill here, drill now, lower prices”)
And McCain favored the surge (Huge Applause).

So I think we see what policies we’ll hear about over the next two days.

Governor Palin at the Convention

Every speech praised the Palin choice.

And when her image was on the big screen, the delegates erupted.

I know that the media is doubting the choice. Nobody in this room seems to be.

Tomorrow, Governor Palin will address the convention. And I think the Democrats and media are completely underestimating her and her appeal to this audience. As a proud Christian conservative, the delegates seem to be truly energized by the Palin pick. In fact, the only exuberant cheering was about the Veep choice. Less so the candidate

Branding in Minneapolis

So, today was about branding. The Republican brand is in trouble. That much is clear. So the convention tried to resuscitate the brand by recasting the party as one of reform.

The McCain brand is still solid. I don’t think the Dems. did much to dent that. It reminds me of the Angelides campaign’s effort to link Arnold Schwarzenegger to George W. Bush. It failed miserably because Arnold is his own finely honed brand.

Well the McCain brand is similar. And as long as the dominant narrative of the campaign is McCain as maverick, he’s uniquely able to avoid the blame of the Bush years.

Tonight was about burnishing that brand.

Between the Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman speeches the point was to discuss McCain’s heroism in military service and as a prisoner of war. And to reintroduce his as maverick, reformer, and post-partisan leader. While the crowd was pretty receptive, the hero narrative was more warmly applauded than the maverick and reformer one.