Democrats at the RNC

So I haven’t seen any Democrats yet at the Convention. But they are clearly interested in responding to the Republican Convention in real time as the Repubs did at theirs.

The choice of Palin ended the DNC buzz a few days early and pre-empted the start of the campaign bus tour/ love fest that the Obama/Biden ticket had scheduled.

So what have the Dems. planned to knock McCain off the front pages? Well, aside from the start of the football season (which I would assume would depress ratings for Thursday night), Senator Obama will be heading over to Fox to give an interview with Bill O’Reilly. On Thursday. More or less right before McCain goes on. Now I don’t expect Fox News to gush over Obama, but this should get some run on Thursday. And depending on how it goes, might really cut into the TV coverage of McCain. And let’s face it, since people don’t read anymore, TV is king.

Expectations for Governor Palin

Tonight is billed as Governor Palin’s first “test”.

She’ll pass, easily. This isn’t a test, it’s an opportunity.

The McCain campaign has been dysfunctional in numerous respects – from the leaking and backbiting around the Veep choice (the campaign has kept the story running by giving out information about the choice, the vetting process, the timeline, etc.) to the inability to answer simple factual questions about Palin’s record. What’s funny, of course, is that there is a record. But that’s probably because they were caught off guard. So the campaign has taken way too long to get on message. They’ve finally settled on something about executive experience and how local government prepares you to be president because there is no escaping accountability. Makes sense to me actually. Far better than, “Alaska is close to Russia” or “She’s the Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard.”

But for all of their challenge in rolling out this pick, they are EXCELLENT speechwriters. Now I know McCain isn’t a captivating speaker. But if you read an Obama speech next to a McCain speech, the McCain one is simply better – better written, better thematically, etc. So tonight, they get to write for someone who is regarded as an excellent speaker. So she’ll do very well tonight. Yes, it’s a big stage, and yes it’s a relatively large auditorium. But this isn’t the tough test. That will come in the debate and when fielding media questions. Tonight will be her chance to introduce herself (literally introduce, not re-introduce) to voters and to the media and to the delegates on the floor. And she gets script. I fully expect her to ace the test.

So far, the questionable move of the day was the choice to bring the future son-in-law to the convention and have “family photos” taken with the Palin and McCain families. I still hope people will leave this alone. These are kids and they lives are simply none of our business. But parading this future son-in-law in front of the media (presumably to forestall the inevitable “get” of pictures of them together that would merely extend the story) seems to me to be a bit of a mistake. Yes, they get to claim him as a member of the family and his absence would be “news” or what passes for “news” also, but it’s a bit disingenuous to ask for privacy and then bring the kid into the limelight.

Anyway, expect a heavy dose of biography. And of the words “reform” and “maverick”. Expect a pretty safe version of her policy positions, but I would be stunned if this turns into a Biden-esqe attack on the other party’s nominee. That’s not her role. That’s why the Republicans have Rudy. She’s going to keep it positive and optimistic.

On Tap for Day Three

So, Wednesday at the Republican Convention:

The parade of former presidential contenders continues: Rudy “America’s Mayor” Guiliani, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee. This would complete the quad-fecta of past “frontrunners” to speak. It is worth noting that three of the four are no longer in public office. It is striking the degree to which sitting Senators and Governors are not addressing this convention. The Dems. seemed to give everybody their 8 minutes of time to gain some public attention. For a series of reasons (from Arnold Schwarzenegger’s absence due to the CA budget stalemate) to purely strategic decisions to avoid the convention lest the Republican brand impact potentially competitive races (John Sununu, etc.) there just aren’t a lot of sitting officeholders giving speeches.

But, unlike the Democrats, this parade of failed candidates isn’t about reuniting the party. Rather, these folks will provide the harsh attacks on Barack Obama that will excite the delegates. Expect some red meat tonight. Lots of it. In part, because it CANNOT come from Governor Palin (more on that in a few)…

Also on tap is the “future of the party” Governor Bobby Jindal from Louisiana who will be speaking from New Orleans. He was a potential Veep choice and is an intriguing person. Unfortunately, due to Gustav, he’s not here. I would think that he’s probably got the brightest future of the convention speakers, so the fact that he’s not able to address the convention live is unfortunate.

The other intriguing speech (at least to Californians) will be by former HP chief Carly Fiorina. She has defended Governor Palin vigorously (famously referring to the criticisms as “sexist” and sounding feminist themes in her defense), and is regarded as a potential Gov. candidate in 2010. The three frontrunners for the Republican nomination are Insurance Commissioner and lone statewide elected Republican Steve Poisner, Ebay CEO Meg Whitman, and Fiorina… by most respects three moderate (read Arnold) Republicans. Expect a hard right conservative to shake this up in the primary.

My hope, is that it’s Whitman vs. Westly for an all Ebay battle. At least I know where I could find 1 cent campaign buttons (albeit with $3.99 shipping).

The Bushes at the Convention

So, the Republicans did dodge a bullet by avoiding the W. and Cheney appearances scheduled for Monday. Instead, they got Laura Bush and W. by videotape from the White House.

Laura Bush warmly called Gov. Palin “a strong executive and proven reformer” and got a big cheer for her shout out to Republican women particularly Condi Rice.

She billed her defense of the Bush 43 administration as “just the facts”. And some were indeed “facts”: improved test scores, more people receiving AIDS medications in Africa (though the need is rapidly increasing probably more rapidly than the treatments depending on the data referenced). But some were not really facts, like her line that Bush appointed two exceptional judges. That seems more a matter of opinion, and that in Afghanistan and Iraq “fifty million people are now living in freedom” which seems like an interpretation rather than a fact. But the final “fact” that W. “kept the American people safe” seemed to trump all others. And got sustained applause. Laura Bush remains enormously popular.

W. gave a strikingly partisan speech given that he was speaking from the White House. Now, I don’t get caught up in that too much – he would have spoken at the convention, so I give him a pass. But it was an interesting speech. It mixed 9/11 rhetoric – how he “stood in the ruins of buildings” and that McCain learned the “lessons of 9/11″ – with praise of McCain as someone valuing “service above self” (an implicit swipe at Obama) and with the “courage and vision” to be commander-in-chief (there’s that frame again).

So what was interesting? Well, most recall that the Bush campaign ran a below-the-radar campaign against McCain in South Carolina referencing his “black daughter”. Tonight, Bush praised the McCains as “adoptive parents”. Bush made some reference to the “angry left” that would not deter McCain. I’m not sure if he’s talking about protesters, or Nancy Pelosi, or Obama. This was a little “vast rightwing conspiracy” for me.

He did reference a few policies (really the only one today):
McCain will make tax relief (there’s that frame again) permanent: solid applause
McCain will drill offshore: HUGE applause (then again, I was seated by the Texas delegation many of whome were wearing stickers saying “drill here, drill now, lower prices”)
And McCain favored the surge (Huge Applause).

So I think we see what policies we’ll hear about over the next two days.

Governor Palin at the Convention

Every speech praised the Palin choice.

And when her image was on the big screen, the delegates erupted.

I know that the media is doubting the choice. Nobody in this room seems to be.

Tomorrow, Governor Palin will address the convention. And I think the Democrats and media are completely underestimating her and her appeal to this audience. As a proud Christian conservative, the delegates seem to be truly energized by the Palin pick. In fact, the only exuberant cheering was about the Veep choice. Less so the candidate

Branding in Minneapolis

So, today was about branding. The Republican brand is in trouble. That much is clear. So the convention tried to resuscitate the brand by recasting the party as one of reform.

The McCain brand is still solid. I don’t think the Dems. did much to dent that. It reminds me of the Angelides campaign’s effort to link Arnold Schwarzenegger to George W. Bush. It failed miserably because Arnold is his own finely honed brand.

Well the McCain brand is similar. And as long as the dominant narrative of the campaign is McCain as maverick, he’s uniquely able to avoid the blame of the Bush years.

Tonight was about burnishing that brand.

Between the Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman speeches the point was to discuss McCain’s heroism in military service and as a prisoner of war. And to reintroduce his as maverick, reformer, and post-partisan leader. While the crowd was pretty receptive, the hero narrative was more warmly applauded than the maverick and reformer one.

We’re not in Kansas (or Denver) Anymore

Needless to say, the vibe in Minneapolis/St. Paul is a bit different than in Denver. Some basic distinctions:

Hotels are priced in the relatively affordable range rather than…. well, not.
The shuttles to/from the arena seem to have been organized in advance rather than…. well, not.
Good seats are still available at the Convention – LOTS of them. Lots. I sat dead center in about the 10th row.
Like a Dodgers’ game – the “crowd” arrived late and left early (then again, Lieberman was last).
The set was sparse and not particularly tech-savvy rather than a visually stunning and possibly seizure-inducing tribute to 22nd century technology.
The delegates are predominantly male and nearly entirely white.

Jesse Ventura (former governor of MN and professional wrestler) is here. He’s like the crazy uncle of Minnesota politics.
Republicans from Texas wear the same shirts (today, red) and funny hats. They don’t seem to find them funny.
The music tends towards the Country and Christian rather than Melissa Ethridge or Stevie Wonder.
“Service” means military service alone rather than public service more broadly.
The California delegation will spend three hours on Wednesday at an optional day at the Mall of America rather than, well, in a day of “service” as in Denver.
There is NO discussion of policy. But some excellent framing of policy rather than the reverse.

So, coming from Denver, it was a bit of culture shock. The convention began today with a tribute to recently deceased party members. For the most part, the crowd was silent, but burst into simultaneous applause for Jesse Helms, Henry Hyde, Tony Snow, and Gerald Ford.

Then, the day’s themes were laid bare by Cong. John Boehner:

“country before politics”
“party of reform”
“Washington today is broken and the Democratic Congress is its most visible symbol”
“America is the greatest nation on earth”

And not a single policy issue was raised. I have to think the Republicans are WAY better at messaging than the Democrats.

Palin, McCain’s Judgment, and Democratic Glee

OK, so obviously Governor Sarah Palin had a rough day.
Turns out she’s not much of a reformer (having supported the bridge to nowhere before she was against it), is maybe too much of a maverick (having been a member of the Independence Party advocating Alaska’s secession), has some ethics problems of her own (a firing scandal that recalls the Bushies handling of the federal prosecutors) and doesn’t yet have the national politics chops (having wondered aloud what the Vice President actually does, which isn’t a bad question really) or international experience (aside from living close to Russia as Cindy McCain so helpfully pointed out). And then there’s the issue with her daughter.

I for one would like that last piece to disappear. I mean, I like political scandals as much as the next guy. I was hoping we’d see John Edwards at the DNC and I’m planning to make a quick stop in the Senator Larry Craig restroom at the Minneapolis Airport tomorrow to pay my respects. But the Dems. are completely overplaying this. First, this would not be an issue if Senator Palin was a man or her daughter was a son. Accordingly, this is precisely the sort of issue that will end up rebounding with huge consequences. The Democrats are giddy with this scandal and they need to leave it alone. Senator Obama was exactly right in making this point today. Now the blogosphere needs to back off and leave it along. Second, this distracts from the real issue. Which is….

What was McCain thinking? Yes, the Palin pick makes some sense – reformer, maverick, youth, vigor, energy… all things the McCain camp needed. And it got the Dem. Convention off the airwaves. WAY off. And given the viewership of Thursday night, this was hard to do. And it’s a game changing swing for the fences by potentially (POTENTIALLY) appealing to the hard right on guns, abortion, and gas while also (POTENTIALLY) making inroads with women unhappy with the Obama campaign’s treatment of Senator Clinton. Yes it was a political pick and a cynical pick. But it makes some sense. McCain needed the help. He was heading down the drain.

But, to not fully explore the candidate’s background is an enormous failure. They didn’t bother to check her out until after the selection. McCain made the choice upon their first meeting a week before she was introduced (and after having wrapped up the nomination back in March (this is inexcusable). He made the choice after not being able to have his first (Lieberman) or second (Ridge) choice and was unhappy with the other names he was given as finalists (this suggests that the campaign is in charge not the candidate). So his judgment seems unwise at best and dangerous at worst.

So why not vet her fully? Because they wanted to make a splash. Read the NYTimes today -  the McCain camp is leaking like the Titanic.

This is the “real” issue, not family politics, not contraception politics, not Governor Palin’s daughter.

Katrina, Gustav, and Disaster Politics

So the Republicans dodged the biggest bullet(s) of the convention when Bush and Cheney decided not to address the convention on Monday to focus on the impending arrival of Gustav. This is good politics.

First, it’s nice to see the administration engaged. If only Katrina had come during an election season maybe New Orleans would not have drowned.

And second, this was a no win for Senator McCain. If Bush says, hey we made some mistakes, but McCain is the guy to fix it, he undermines his legacy and his party and the man who voted with him 90-97% of the time (depending on which numbers you believe). But if he says, we got it right and history will prove us right, that’s precisely the kind of tone-deaf rhetoric that sank his approval ratings to historic lows in the first place.

So the natural disaster prevented a political one. Well…

Now word comes that the Prez and Veep-in-Chief will be speaking by remote on Tuesday. I’m looking forward to seeing how the delegates respond.

I’ll report back what I see and hear.

“There’s No Going Back”

So I wanted to clarify a post I made last week at 3am on Thursday night. My basic argument was, “If Obama wins, it will be hard to imagine the old politics – by which I mean non-democratic, non-participatory, elite-driven, traditional media dominated, presidential elections occurring again. This will change the game. And if he loses… I fear that we will lose a generation.

Now, Spencer rightly called me out on being “Barack Star-Struck” and challenged the premise of the post, so I thought it appropriate to clarify.

While McCain has done a great job of getting the Democratic convention off of the nightly news by selecting Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his choice for Veep (with potentially disastrous consequences) it’s worth revisiting why this convention was so different in my opinion (and I’ve watched more or less gavel-to-gavel since 1988).

Whether we want to call it the Barack-Star phenomenon or movement politics, the reality is that the staid old conventions are done. The viewership resembled the Superbowl and *FINALLY* surpassed the American Idol final. Now, it could be argued that this is just celebrity politics (attribution to John McCain) but I think it is something different.

First, the decision to hold the final night in the stadium while audacious and an enormous logistical challenge did in fact open up the convention. Let’s be frank, with the exception of some public radio types and a handful of academics able to score media badges (including my esteemed colleague San Jose State Professor of Politics Terry Christiansen), conventions are a closed affair. The ONLY people there are delegates, donors, lobbyists, and friends of the aforementioned groups.

This changed that somewhat. Sure the HUGE sponsors dominated the day. I made that point about the California delegation. Large corporations sponsor everything from the parties to the names of the arenas. Still, while it might not be logical to hold future conventions in stadia, my guess is that voters will demand access from now on. Conventions will become more small-D democratic, more participatory, more transparent.

Similarly, say what you want about the mainstream media (and I’ve said a lot in classes), they no longer dominate the news coverage. Between thousands (literally) of bloggers to alternative media (I got some fantastic DVDs by aspiring filmmakers) to YouTube, the relevance of the Brokaws and Courics is diminishing. And the house of horrors echo chamber that is cable media (from Wolf to Olberman to Hannity and O’Reilly) simply don’t have the significance they used to in past conventions.

Now, if Obama loses, and that’s still a possibility, what happens to the core group of young people who have crashed the party? Either they regroup, reorganize, and really do something next time… or we lose them. I fear it’s the latter.